Florida Governor Ron DeSantis could win the presidential election based on his popularity and track record. 2024 is just not his time.
Until the 2018 midterms, Ron DeSantis was a relatively unknown name in national politics. The establishment Republican choice to lead Florida was then Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam. Trump backed DeSantis. DeSantis won the primary and defeated his Democrat opponent in the general. DeSantis became governor.
DeSantis ran for re-election in 2022. He won. The opponent was not even close.
DeSantis led Florida when the nation was in a crisis caused by the Coronavirus pandemic. People chose freedom over anything else. Hundreds of thousands of people moved to Florida. Many of these were wealthier people living in large cities in California and New York. They chose Miami as their new city. This resulted in Miami-Dade County turning red from blue.
DeSantis remains the most favored choice for 2028. However, if DeSantis challenges Trump for 2024, DeSantis will never win the presidency.
No politician can get voters excited like Trump does
Many pundits easily forget that establishment politics was normal in this country pre-Trump. Both parties were more or less the same. Only on very few policy issues, they disagreed. People of America were unhappy with both parties. Trump’s voice gave these forgotten people a voice. The establishment and short-term thinkers of the republican party want the pre-term era back desperately. It won’t happen though. Some falsely believe they could get several thousand people wearing “DeSantis” or “Pompeo” or “Pence” hats at rallies after rallies in rain or sun. They falsely believe they can excite people to vote. Here is a good example: DeSantis got fewer votes in Florida than Trump. Why? Because voters were not excited to “crawl on broken glass” as many Trump voters say to vote for DeSantis.
Trump polls ahead
In almost all polls, Trump has led DeSantis by a far wider margin. Trump voters notice this.
Trump is battle-tested
Some also falsely believe that DeSantis will be treated better by the media. He won’t. Once he clears the primary, he will face the same media and tech platforms that act as Democrat Super-PACs. Trump keeps the momentum going no matter how many hoaxes Republicans and Democrats create against him.
Voters want a populist not a politician
Many pundits also falsely believe that populist voters want political normalcy: meaning no talk of any controversial issue. In fact, they prefer chaos: talk about issues that matter regardless of how controversial those topics are. Trump does. Before an establishment system can be fixed, it has to be broken. This causes chaos. Expect short-term chaos so the forgotten Americans get a voice. Many senators, congressmen/women, and state officials elected post-2016 are populists and this trend will continue. By 2026, in national politics, republican populists will outnumber establishment politicians.
Voters think 2020 election was stolen from Trump
Most Republican voters think Trump won 2020 election. They think Trump deserved a second term. They are waiting to vote for him again in 2024. While Biden’s votes were questioned, 75 million votes for Trump is a huge number. Right after 2020 election, millions of merchandise like hats, flags, mugs, t-shirts with “Trump 2024” signs have been sold in stores. It was created by voter demand. No such demand has been seen for any other potential candidate.
Florida needs DeSantis as Governor
Trump successfully converted Florida from a purple to a red state. DeSantis made it deep red. However, there is so much more to be done. Florida needs DeSantis. Voters want him. What if Florida flips back to Democrat control or another Jeb Bush becomes governor?
Sometimes short-term popularity makes some people make irrational choices. I hope DeSantis is not one of them. He is a great leader and he should wait for his turn. Unfortunately, the longer he delays to announce that he will not run, the more potential damage he may incur.