All of us around the world are showing support for Ukraine. Nothing is more tragic than innocent civilians dying when nations go to war. I thank everyone for opposing war, including Russians, and helping in whatever way they can: prayers, funds, or opposition.
Foreign policy is a very complex matter. Since Russia invaded Ukraine, I have been watching many pundits and politicians on TV and many friends talk about the war. It is surprising and quite sad how the so-called diplomats are so ill-prepared for a situation like this.
First, people need to really get their heads straight. This is not a Twitter war. This is not a war of words, comments, likes, or dislikes. Tweets, shares, comments will not change Putin’s mind. Politicians looking for 2 min of fame on TV appearances with reckless comments won’t stop Putin. Putin most likely doesn’t even watch them.
This is a war where people die. Ukrainians are dying. If not handled diplomatically, there is a grave danger of WWIII. If that happens, chances are we all will die as well.
Diplomacy is not an option, it is the only option
Ancient warfare strategies provide clear guidance for these tough times. When a war is provoked by a very powerful regime and led by an unpredictable leader, diplomacy shall prevail. Every country should be pushing for talks. Not war. Get Putin on the table. Negotiate. This is the only solution.
Truth is ugly and history is uglier
As far as the history of nation-states is traceable, bad things have happened to a nation that does not adequately spend its resources in defense. In the end, weapons always prevail. That’s why powerful nations allocate a significant budget for defensive measures. A nation must be able to defend itself and its allies against invaders. The reality is that Soviet Russia’s nuclear capabilities are only comparable to the United States.
Had the United States not intervened in WWII at the appeal of Winston Churchill, Hitler would have possibly conquered entire Europe. Although various international organizations were formed in response to WWII, they in no way guarantee that a Russian invasion won’t happen. Not in distant memory, Russia annexed Crimea in 2014 when Mr. Barack Obama was president and Mr Joe Biden was his Vice President.
East India Company – a private corporation – invaded and ruled a large part of Asia with the blessing of the British Monarch. Alexandar invaded wherever he set his eyes on. Mughals invaded and ruled India for over six centuries. In some cases, a king invaded a state because he was attracted to another king’s wife. Wars have happened and millions have died for very stupid reasons. As stupid or as ambitious their leader could be.
Virtually every country has been subject to some form of military invasion – either foreign or domestic. Unfortunately, war is more common than it appears. Those who live in peaceful countries rarely think there are some nations at war. Ask someone from Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, and many others how their experience has been.
On a very lucky day in 2003, I happened to be walking with a friend across the street from a large glass building in Kathmandu when it suddenly exploded giving us many cuts and bruises; it was the Maoist-State civil war in Nepal. Had I been on the other side, the story would be different. Not everyone was lucky. Many relatives died. Not every innocent children, women, and men were lucky in Ukraine, or recently in Iraq or Afghanistan.
The warmongers who push for a war obviously haven’t suffered any damage themselves.
Avoid reckless behavior
Another class of so-called experts on TV are pushing the narrative that Russia is losing the war. These people apparently never read the pieces of literature on warfare or learned from history. Unless Putin feels like he is losing or the pain is more than the victory, he will not want to destroy the country or people that he invaded. That would be stupid. He will need these people in harmony so that civil war does not break out after he takes over the country. There is a difference in invasion versus annexation. Putin has invaded Ukraine to annex Ukraine. This is different than George Bush invading Iraq or Barack Obama invading Libya. When you plan to annex, you want to do the least damage to the nation and its people. Putin is deliberately not destroying the country or killing millions yet. And the dangerous part is that we don’t know how reckless he could be in order to win.
Sanctions, as Joe Biden admitted, won’t have much immediate effect. He went on to say that sanctions would not even deter Russia. It is natural for small European nations to be scared. After Ukraine, who is next? But how would Putin perceive their action of militarily supporting Ukraine? What about the people in Russia who are themselves not liking the war? If their families die of hunger, is that an intended consequence? The last person to be personally affected by all financial wars is Putin. He is rich and powerful.
Seizing the assets of civilians is a wrong move. It erodes the ability to do business in foreign nations. News is out there that Germany seized $600M mega yacht of a Russian businessman. There isn’t any news about his personal involvement in the war yet. Maybe there is but we just don’t know yet (as of this writing). Unless he has a role in the war, this move by Germany is clearly wrong. Imagine the implications of these reckless actions. What if China, a close ally of Russia, seizes all Tesla cars in China? Why if Russia seizes the business and personal assets of Americans? What if India is pressured to seize American businesses operating in India considering India’s historically close ties with Russia? This will destabilize the ability to do business internationally. Does Ford not want to sell cars in China? Or Jeff Bezos not want Amazon to operate in India? How about Google: do they want to remain in Russia or India? It becomes way more complicated.
Russia isn’t Afghanistan. When Mr Joe Biden’s accidentally killed a family – including women and children – in Afghanistan after the humiliating withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021, Afghanistan didn’t retaliate. Because Afghanistan isn’t an organized nation. Russia is a nation and it will retaliate.
Reckless diplomacy will further infuriate Putin. Putin is 69 years old and has been in power for over two decades. It is his prime time. Meaning, he has nothing to lose. All that he gains will be part of his legacy. He is making calculated moves. Hence, other countries should make their calculated moves too.
War is a deeply unpopular issue in America
America has been fighting for others for over a hundred years. America got dragged into some major wars although those weren’t America’s wars. And some wars were insanely stupid. Most Americans at least remember the recent very unpopular ones. Iraq war, Afghanistan War (except to get Laden but he was in Pakistan), Arab Spring to name a few. Innocent civilians in those countries and many young American soldiers died.
The United States must avoid any conflict with Russia. Conflict with Russia isn’t a comparable conflict with Iraq or Afghanistan. Russia-America war will lead to World War III. An estimated 6 billion people will die. Perhaps no one on earth will remain alive to write the history of US-Russia war.
America has been at war for the past two decades. America has hundreds of crises. Families are suffering. Several polls show – as common sense suggests – Americans aren’t interested in a war.
Diplomacy must prevail.
Anyone pushing for war should personally go to Ukraine, enlist and fight. That option is there.
Updates:
February 27, 2022: Ukraine appeals for foreign volunteers to join fight against Russia: Sounds very good in theory but it’s also a reckless call. It’s impossible to imagine ordinary civilians fighting and winning against the professionally trained military. History is full of these incidents. However, the result is always devastating. The goal should be to minimize casualties. Innocent civilians should not die because the country is at war. (When I was meeting with King Gyanendra of Nepal, he explained to me in very simple words why he gave up his crown: to stop killings and end the civil war. “I was not born with a crown so giving up wasn’t that difficult”. Sometimes great sacrifices are required to restore peace.)
March 5, 2022: Calls to boycott McDonald’s, other brands in wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
March 5, 2022: Visa, Mastercard suspend all operations in Russia, ‘effective immediately’. March 29, 2022: Read WSJ Article how Russia outsmarted Visa and Mastercard by building their own payment network Mir.
March 7, 2022: More businesses exit Russia
March 7, 2022: Russia will try to swap over to a Chinese card service
Thoughts on global businesses exiting Russia:
As mentioned above, political tensions will affect the ability to do business internationally. There could be books written only on this topic. In summary, though, foreign businesses are kind of declaring a war against Russian civilians who may be very anti-war themselves but now they are a victim without their own fault. While this all sounds morally very good, in the long term, how would foreign businesses recruit people when they want to do business there again? Businesses withdrawing from Russia will definitely impact their revenues. Worse, who will fill the gap because of the tremendous opportunity of lack of competition? China? India? Or some adversary? Their homegrown competition and ability to expand in their own friendly blocs of nations wouldn’t be in the best interest of the United States. It’s very hard to be a leader of an organization these days because of various expectations but businesses are not governments. They have different kinds of duties. How will Russia-friendly countries react? A real threat of forming blocs for businesses: one for western allies and another led by trio China/Russia/India. Either way, not good for business. Tough times.
Russia-Ukraine war may lead to America’s economic collapse:
Russia/China/India trio alliance with their many allies will create an environment that will be detrimental to economy of United States. US has been the richest country on earth but that crown is already in threat due to rising China. War will accelerate China’s influence. America has been a world leader for at least a century. This is the first time US is facing a leadership vacuum. When America put a weak man in the office, Putin saw an opportunity to exploit his weakness. China and many other nations are keenly waiting on to form new alliances. When America is weak, the world suffers. US must not become Europe — once powerful nations weaker than Russia and poorer than China. It will be a different world if that happens.
March 20, 2022: Zelensky Uses Martial Law to Ban Ukraine’s Opposition Parties: This does not look good in a democracy whether it’s to defend democracy itself.