Not everything is as bad as it appears to many people and most pundits. I often look for the positive things that could arise from the worst perceived events. And some very promising trends are emerging.
Several of my friends had asked me what President Trump would do after he leaves office. I often replied, disruption. First, he disrupted politics, and after he leaves the White House, he will disrupt media and digital media. I must say, I was wrong. The disruption started right after his speech on January 6th, 2021 in Washington DC. That day’s unfortunate event led to condemnation from many sides.
A few years ago and increasingly in the past few months, most people believed that Trump would be removed from all websites. It was nothing new. The precedent was set two years ago with the removal of conservative radio host Alex Jones who probably had the highest number of subscribers, even more than CNN, MSNBC or the giant Fox News. Many other prominent people have been banned or removed as well which has led to conservatives complaining about censorship.
At many events, I have heard conservatives whining about censorship. I asked them, “Are you using their website or app?”. They said yes. They were dumbfounded when I told them that I was never a Twitter user, and deleted my Facebook account in 2013, almost nowhere in any social media. As a result, I was the happiest and perhaps the most “sane” person. I told them they had no right to complain. You are the product of their technologies, they can do whatever they want since stupid politicians gave them the welfare of Section 230. The tech companies did not force you to join; you chose. They are as powerful as you choose to make them.
Almost every mobile app developer and startup has privately complained about the duopoly of Google Play Store and Apple App Store. But no one would speak against them because of the fear of being removed. Imagine what happens to Uber’s $100+ billion value if its CEO Dara speaks against Apple/Google and Uber is removed. What if Dara plans to launch any competing products that would threaten Apple/Google? There are some bold people such as the developers of Fortnight games who are fighting but the battle is uphill. It’s so uphill that even Facebook, Twitter, Snap, and Instagram cannot sleep peacefully. If Apple and Google want, they can bring the value of these tech companies to zero in a matter of few minutes.
Some have given too much importance to Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, Snap, and other players. In my experience of driving in 46 states, not even one person has mentioned that any of these tech players played any role in forming their political beliefs. Many don’t even carry a smartphone and have no cable or newspaper subscription. You have to wonder, why only Trump’s name resonates with them.
I believe the best policy of a company is not to comment on politics or sensitive matters. Doing so hurts the feelings of many customers and employees. The first obligation of a company’s leadership should be to keep their customers and employees happy. However, we have set a culture of “shareholder value” only which in many cases does not overlap the well-being of customers and employees. Additionally, due to the personal arrogance of a few people in management, the company’s brand is questioned which is detrimental in the long term. Companies earn bad names and also lose revenues which hurts shareholders. For example, Florida is introducing a bill to ban the state from purchasing Apple products. That’s a considerable loss of revenue. What will be next? Since Apple’s management doesn’t like conservatives, do they plan not to sell their products or services to Republican states? How about just banning all conservative consumers from buying Apple products? Will that help Apple?
While it’s perceived that most of the large tech players are full of Democrats, it is never true. As a nation of two parties, we all have a 50% chance of having someone else from another party in our home, family, workplace, or social gatherings. Unfortunately, the technologies that you use show you the content that you want to see. As a result, you adopt some radical thoughts that you have no idea and you assume that the world shown to you is the only world that exists. Because I am not in social media, I often tell my friends of all political beliefs, you have become more radical in the past ten years you just don’t realize it.
Many startups have emerged in the past decade trying to disrupt tech. They were deprived of resources and funding as most doubted whether a small startup would be able to compete against the large established players. As a result, they couldn’t succeed. Now that “the great disruptor” does not live in the established platforms, many tech entrepreneurs have started to emerge which will be great for innovation, competition, and for the world to be a better place.
Some Predictions Likely to Happen
In the next decade,
- Trump will become the catalyst of media/tech disruption.
- Monopolies tend to destroy themselves. Apple and Google will no longer be on the list of top five companies. New mobile platforms, most likely universally compatible open source, would emerge. These may be public utilities like the internet that no one controls. Payment mechanisms and infrastructure would follow it.
- Twitter had a fundamental business problem. Their stock price always traded like a penny stock before Trump made it a valuable company. It will lose users and advertisers. Twitter has a good chance it will not exist. Perhaps Jack himself isn’t a big fan of Twitter; hence devotes his resources to his other company Square.
- Facebook/Instagram/WhatsApp will face big problems with user monetization as privacy focused apps such as Signal are increasingly used. Facebook will lose users in the United States, ads will become expensive and will face governmental threats in foreign nations. Foreign countries will promote their homegrown startups especially because of the precedent set by removing a sitting US president. They may even shut down Facebook as India did to TikTok. While Facebook has legal resources available in the US, they don’t have any in foreign countries and will face the continued threat of being shut down.
- AWS will not remain a dominant player for hosting. Hosting services is a commodity that many startups provide and bigger players will emerge.
- Amazon’s e-commerce business will not see much growth in the US, if any, which they also know and that’s the reason they are seeking international growth.
- Anti-monopoly laws and suits would be pursued aggressively no matter which administration.
- People will be more divided. The US will become a more conservative country.
- Election fraud claims will increase. Democrats will pursue Mail-in-Ballot in the name of voter access and Republicans will oppose for potential of voter fraud. Republicans will enforce voter ID laws to prevent election fraud; Democrats will oppose arguing that it’s voter suppression.
- Trump will remain the de-facto head of the Republican Party since Trump is more popular than the Republican Party. Every Republican can lose if Trump opposes. He proved that by opposing and defeating Alabama’s popular Jeff Sessions. Trumpism will be here for thousands of years.
- Elon Musk may remain at the top of the list for a very long time, considering his other companies are not even public yet.
- With the news becoming a 24-hour reality show biz with opinions from so called experts, news became a content business decades ago. Trump destroyed any remaining credibility in journalism by making “fake news” a global phenomenon. As a result, several established media companies will no longer exist due to the eroding trust and ability to get advertisers because of disruptions in tech.
- Elitism will further decline due to rising populism and counter-campaigns. The precedent was set with Trump appointed Amy Coney Barret, a non Ivy League grad to Supreme Court where Harvard and Yale dominated. Democrats selected Joe Biden, also a non-Ivy, first since Ronald Reagan.
- Trump might return to the Oval Office in a few years. Both Republicans and Democrats know this possibility; hence an impeachment push after his term expired which has never happened in US history and is almost certainly unconstitutional. In 2, 4, or 6 years, there will be more Trumpers in the House and Senate than there were in 2016.
- US relationship with China will continue to be scrutinized regardless of administration changes.
- Media became a mouthpiece of either the Democrat party or the Republican party in the 80s/90s. Now Social Media will follow that path and choose to become an information propagation platform for one of the parties. Early trends show established players like Facebook/Twitter to become Democrat social media and emerging startups like Parler/Gab to become Republican social media.